Spot vs Futures

Illustration: an open reference book with a single small gold coin resting on the page

Definition

The spot price is what metal costs for immediate delivery right now. A futures price is what a contract sets for delivery on a specific later date. The two are related but not identical.

Understanding the difference explains why two gold quotes you see on the same day can differ slightly.

Why it matters

Spot is the reference most physical buyers care about, since it reflects the current cash value of an ounce. Futures matter for hedging and trading, and the gap between them tells you how the market views financing costs and time. Neither is the final price you pay for a coin, which also includes a dealer premium.

Example

Suppose spot gold is quoted around a given level today. A contract for delivery several months out might trade a little higher, reflecting the cost of holding the metal until then. If that future month trades above spot, the market is in what traders call contango.

Common confusion

People sometimes treat the futures price as “tomorrow’s prediction.” It is not a forecast. It is the agreed price for delivery later, shaped mostly by interest and storage costs, not by where anyone expects spot to land.