Historical Returns Calculator
Straight answer
This calculator compounds a starting amount (and optional yearly additions) at a return rate you choose, over the years you set. Use it to project illustrative growth — not a forecast. For reference, stocks have historically compounded near 10% a year with dividends, while gold has done roughly 4–6% over long stretches, with no dividend and long flat decades along the way.
Compounding is the whole story over decades, and small differences in annual return swing the end result enormously. Enter your own assumptions to see the math — then treat the output as a what-if, because past returns never guarantee future ones.
Illustrative reference rates: S&P 500 ~10%/yr (with dividends, total return), gold ~5%/yr (price only), silver more volatile. Real returns vary widely by start and end date.
Stocks vs gold, honestly
Over multi-decade windows, broad stock indexes have compounded near 10% a year including reinvested dividends. Gold has appreciated more slowly — roughly 4–6% over long stretches, sometimes much faster in a strong window like the 2000s or 2020s, and sometimes flat or falling for fifteen years at a stretch. Crucially, gold pays nothing while you hold it; its entire return is price change. The full comparison is in historical returns vs stocks and gold vs stocks.
Why the start date changes everything
Pick 1971 or 2000 as a starting point and gold looks brilliant; pick 1980 and it looks dreadful for two decades. Any single return figure hides that path. Treat the output here as one scenario, and stress-test it by trying a lower rate and a longer flat stretch.
Use it for sizing, not certainty
The value of this tool is showing how compounding rewards patience and how a couple of percentage points compound into large gaps — not predicting a price. Pair it with a sensible allocation and remember the round-trip costs that come off the top of any physical-metal return.
What return rate should I use for gold?
For a long-run, conservative assumption, many people use something in the 3–6% range to reflect gold’s historical price appreciation. It has done far better in select windows, but also went sideways for over a decade at times, so a modest rate avoids overstating the case.
Does this account for inflation?
No. It compounds a nominal return. If you want a real (inflation-adjusted) figure, subtract your inflation assumption from the return rate before entering it.
Is this a prediction of what I’ll earn?
No. It’s arithmetic on assumptions you choose. Actual returns depend on prices, timing, premiums, and taxes — it’s an illustration, not advice or a forecast.